Every society has folklore concerning the prediction of upcoming weather, such as the one celebrated on February 2nd in the United States and Canada, known as Groundhog Day.
“Official” Groundhog Day celebrations began in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, in 1887, but the tradition of looking to the behavior of an animal on a specific day of the year to predict the weather can be traced back much further. The accepted superstition is that if a groundhog emerges from its hole on February 2nd and sees its shadow, it will be startled by the sight and return to its burrow, forecasting an additional six weeks of winter. However, if the groundhog emerges to a cloudy sky, and thus fails to see its shadow, winter will soon end.
The practice of Groundhog Day originated in Germany, with a badger the primary focus of the legend, and the period of time being four weeks. The tradition migrated to Pennsylvania, where the badger was replaced by the groundhog, and the period of time was extended to six weeks. The lore around shadows has to do with a belief that if the sky was clear on the Christian festival of Candlemas, it would presage that winter would continue for an extended period of time.
Every culture has its own variation of weather-prediction folklore, most descended from centuries of practical observations by those who rely upon the weather for their livelihood, such as farmers and seafarers. For example, many people recognize the old adage, “Red sky in the morning, sailors take warning; red sky at night, sailors delight.” Some have been formalized and are still looked to today, while others are simply passed on as oral traditions.
In Sri Lanka, one of the centuries-old methods still utilized today is the prediction of weather through the observation of celestial bodies such as the moon and the planets. These observations are interpreted through the teachings of ancient Hindu priests in order to calculate the weather for the coming seasons, and are collected in an almanac called Panchangam.
However, Sri Lanka also has less formal and more anecdotal observations about the weather, more akin to Groundhog Day. For example, it is said that when a white egret, a lowland bird, is seen in the yard (higher ground), the rains will come.